Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 8.484673 9.749341 11.112846 12.689096 14.457847 16.378066 18.617141
2026-01-04 6.640100 8.351463 10.341605 12.814203 15.790046 19.241673 23.532625
2026-01-11 5.609680 7.484706 9.774572 12.753079 16.498422 21.023274 26.871509
2026-01-18 4.783042 6.736508 9.230720 12.611418 17.031032 22.564764 29.962539
2026-01-25 4.210755 6.217605 8.880861 12.620586 17.673710 24.193721 33.158863
2026-02-01 3.777276 5.825310 8.640811 12.722832 18.404200 25.933336 36.546392
2026-02-08 3.360529 5.402283 8.304749 12.641455 18.846341 27.275205 39.431007
2026-02-15 2.998221 5.015187 7.975251 12.525436 19.206281 28.492736 42.170822
2026-02-22 2.737760 4.751718 7.795690 12.598314 19.817697 30.063467 45.443433
2026-03-01 2.577085 4.625895 7.806341 12.943332 20.829567 32.230452 49.633839
2026-03-08 2.312938 4.304027 7.484041 12.749322 21.013274 33.193117 52.112711
2026-03-15 2.008344 3.882049 6.965279 12.203980 20.616608 33.264346 53.264688
2026-03-22 1.903769 3.798932 6.995998 12.545519 21.626571 35.502766 57.766873
2026-03-29 1.785156 3.678952 6.954802 12.764185 22.450325 37.491272 61.972797
2026-04-05 1.626597 3.468224 6.738816 12.669996 22.753429 38.673689 64.971367
2026-04-12 1.479219 3.262711 6.513771 12.540725 22.983886 39.741108 67.819975
2026-04-19 1.366426 3.112196 6.373663 12.545771 23.431650 41.163135 71.269180
2026-04-26 1.277500 2.999936 6.293634 12.648930 24.045635 42.870737 75.228197
2026-05-03 1.173125 2.844611 6.119590 12.567462 24.330312 44.041871 78.351779
2026-05-10 1.074598 2.690831 5.935338 12.452215 24.543924 45.095024 81.309198
2026-05-17 1.005936 2.594506 5.855120 12.524657 25.090865 46.722535 85.264995
2026-05-24 0.970893 2.569717 5.915473 12.867933 26.141616 49.242923 90.796028
2026-05-31 0.885231 2.419483 5.707843 12.674907 26.193728 50.038407 93.426208